Pretend you're playing safety and a 267 lb. Brandon Jacobs and a 205 lb. Ameer Abdullah have broken through the defensive line and linebackers and are now headed straight for you at full speed. Jacobs at 260 lb. ran a 4.57 40-yd dash and Abdullah ran a 4.60 40-yard dash, so we can assume they're running at roughly the same speed. Who would you rather tackle? Or, who do you think would break the remaining tackle most often?
If you're like me, I'd much rather attempt to bring down the smaller Abdullah than the runaway freight train Jacobs.
The idea that it's more impressive for a 267 lb. running back to run a 4.56 40-yard dash than a 208 lb. running back is the premise of the Speed Score.
The Speed Score was developed by Football Outsiders in 2008, and is another metric to help evaluate a running back in the draft.
Like most metrics it misses many things. It does not account for agility, ability to read defenses, pass blocking, receiving ability, but it can help point us in the right direction. And it can help find hidden gems and potential busts, like Brandon Jacobs (123.5 Speed Score) who had solid NFL career for a 4th round selection, or 1st round busts like Trung Canidate (99.3 Speed Score).
Here's the Speed Scores for the running backs in the 2016 NFL draft class. A Speed Score of 100 represents an average performance and the higher score the better and anything below 100 represent below average.
source: NFL.com
The general ranking consensus of the top running backs has a few players in their top 10 that have a below average Speed Score, these players may have more potential to become busts.
Potential busts: Kenneth Dixon, Alex Collins, Josh Ferguson.
Potential hidden gem: Keith Marshall
After Keith Marshall wowed scouts with his blazing fast 40-yard dash time at the combine he is much less of a hidden gem, but still he could be a worthy pick up in the later rounds of the draft.
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